Obama
said as a candidate that he believed the killings were genocide. A
congressional resolution to that effect could alienate Turkey, a NATO
ally and traditional friend of the United States that is crucial to US
foreign policy goals.
Past US administrations have defeated
similar resolutions through public cajoling about US national security
interests and behind-the-scenes lobbying.
So far, however, the
Obama administration has taken no public position on the measure. Aides
to senior Democratic and Republican lawmakers on the House of
Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee say there has been no
pressure against the resolution from the White House. The
administration was informed ahead of time that the committee would be
scheduling the vote, according to Lynn Weil, spokeswoman for the
committee's chairman, Democratic Rep. Howard Berman.
Ankara has long made clear that the issue could alter dramatically Turkish relations with the United States.
In
2007, when the House Armed Services Committee passed such a resolution,
Turkey promptly recalled its ambassador, and US officials feared the
Turks might cut off American access to a Turkish air base essential to
operations in Iraq. After intensive lobbying by top Bush administration
officials, the resolution was not considered by the full House.
Berman's committee is set to consider the issue Thursday.
A
positive vote would clear the resolution to be considered by the full
House. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she will wait to see the
result in the committee before deciding whether to bring it up for vote.
The
United States still wants Turkey's support for its operations in Iraq
and Afghanistan. It also is pressing Turkey, which holds a rotating
seat in the UN Security Council, to support sanctions against Iran,
Turkey's neighbor.
It is not known whether the committee will
approve the resolution. The panel is strongly pro-Israel, and prospects
for passage could be affected by rising tensions between Turkey and
Israel, as well as Turkey's relatively warm relationship with Iran. In
the past, Turkey and Israel had friendlier relations and Israel had
quietly lobbied against the resolution.
Armenian American groups have sought for decades congressional affirmation of the killings as genocide.
Historians
estimate that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed by Ottoman Turks
around the time of World War I, an event widely viewed by scholars as
the first genocide of the 20th century. Turkey denies that the deaths
constituted genocide, saying the toll has been inflated and those
killed were victims of civil war and unrest.
This year, some
Armenian groups and lawmakers are expressing optimism on the
resolution's prospects, noting that Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton all supported recognition
when they served in the Senate.
Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, who
introduced the resolution for consideration, said he sees more
favorable conditions than in 2007.
"Last time we had President Bush calling lawmakers at their homes to oppose the resolution," he said.
In
April, Obama broke a campaign promise to brand the killings genocide in
an annual White House statement on the day marking Armenian
remembrance. Obama said that while he had not changed his personal
views, he did not want to upset promising talks between Turkey and
Armenia on improving relations and opening their border. Turkey sealed
the border in 1993 to protest Armenia's war with neighboring Azerbaijan.
In
October, Turkey and Armenia signed an agreement to normalize relations,
but Turkey has yet to ratify it. As progress toward a breakthrough
between the two countries appears stalled, it may be harder for the
Obama administration to oppose the resolution or refrain from calling
the killings genocide in this year's statement.
"Our interest
remains the achievement of a full, frank and just acknowledgment of the
facts," said White House spokesman Mike Hammer, when asked about the
resolution.
"We continue to believe that the best way to advance
that goal is for the Armenian and Turkish people to address the facts
of the past as a part of their ongoing efforts to normalize relations."
Hammer would not elaborate on the administration's position on the resolution.
Turkey's
ambassador to Washington, Namik Tan, said the Turkish public may view
the administration's silence on the resolution as pressure to ratify
the agreement with Armenia.
"This could definitely complicate the process," he said.
"The greatest lobbyist in Washington is the administration. We have not seen them around enough on this."